(PM) —Two tropical storms and one area of development are currently impacting various areas of the tropical Atlantic. Two of the storms are not expected to impact the mainland United States. A tropical storm that developed on Sunday morning dubbed Karen will possibly threaten the southeast after impacting Puerto Rico mid next week.
Tropical Storm Jerry
Tropical storm Jerry has been struggling for quite some time with shear on all sides. The storm has had somewhat of a revival yesterday with new convection bubbling. However, the center of the storm is exposed which makes for a cool satellite presentation.
The storm is expected to track North-northwest before making a hard right turn very close to Bermuda. If the storm comes to impact Bermuda it would be the second storm in two weeks to impact the small island. Last week hurricane Humberto come close to the island. Due to its massive size it hit the island with 132mph gusts.
As Jerry moves further north there is a chance it will become a hurricane again if it can overcome the shear. The storm will grow in size and will likely impact Bermuda with tropical storm force winds as it makes a close pass. The storm will then race off to the northeast and transition to and extra tropical cyclone.
Tropical Depression Karen
This is the storm has has generated some buzz this week. Yesterday, the storm was stronger as a tropical storm. However today, a recon mission found that Karen lost its center of circulation. This was enough for the National Hurricane Center to downgrade the storm to a depression.
As you can see from the map above, shear is considered unfavorable and this was evident yesterday. The center of circulation ran out ahead of the convection and got sheared out.
Now, we must watch for redevelopment of the system north of the Caribbean. Models are hinting at a turn back west towards the United States in the medium to long range.
Tropical Storm Leonardo
Tropical Storm Lorenzo was a robust wave that came off the African coastline on Monday. The storm has been extensively modeled to become a strong hurricane in the coming days.
All models are in general agreement that the storm will rapidly intensify. I fully expect the storm to become a Major Hurricane within the next week. Low shear warm ocean temperatures will contribute to the further development of this tropical cyclone.
Luckily the storm has also been modeled to curve out to sea. The storm will likely be a beauty on satellite. Extensive cloud top canopies are hinting that this will be a picture perfect storm in a week from now.
Overall it would be smart to keep watch on Karen as there is a chance it can impact the US. The tropics are heating up as we are right by the peak of hurricane season. I will keep you updated with blogs as well as on my twitter @MikeBWeather. Stay safe and monitor the forecast. -Michael Barletta